Axios reports that the United States and Iran are moving towards a deal to end the conflict. The reported terms include both sides easing restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
The report says Iran would commit to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment. It also says the US would lift sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds.
Deal Details And Timeline
The US reportedly expects Iran to respond on several key points within the next 48 hours. Reuters also reports that a Pakistani source involved in the peace efforts confirmed the Axios account and said the sides are close to finalising a deal.
Markets shifted towards risk-taking after the news. The US Dollar Index fell more than 0.6% to about 97.90, while US stock index futures rose between 0.65% and 1.1%.
Gold rose about 3% to around $4,700 on the day. The moves came as traders reacted to the reported progress towards an agreement.
With news that a US-Iran deal is imminent, we see a significant de-risking event that will pressure oil prices in the coming weeks. The primary trade we are considering is buying put options on July and August Brent crude futures, as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the return of Iranian barrels will create a supply glut. The International Energy Agency’s March 2026 report estimated that lifting sanctions could add over 1 million barrels per day to global supply within six months, a figure the market is only now pricing in.
We saw a similar dynamic unfold following the initial nuclear agreement back in 2015, which pushed oil down nearly 20% over the following two months. Given that prices touched $110 a barrel during the tanker escalation in February 2026, we believe there is a clear path back down to the $85-$90 range. Therefore, a bearish stance on energy is our highest conviction position right now.
Equities Volatility And Gold Outlook
The reduction in geopolitical tension is clearly bullish for equities, and we should add to our long positions through call options on the S&P 500. Volatility has been elevated for months, with the VIX averaging over 22 in the first quarter of 2026, largely due to this conflict. We expect the VIX to fall below 15 as this major uncertainty is removed, making long call spreads an attractive, defined-risk way to capture the upside.
The initial spike in gold to $4,700 appears to be a direct reaction to the dollar’s weakness rather than a true flight to safety. As risk appetite fully returns and the dollar stabilizes, this move should reverse, presenting an opportunity to purchase puts on gold futures. A confirmed deal removes a key pillar of support for gold’s recent rally.
This deal’s confirmation will crush implied volatility across asset classes, especially in the energy sector. We believe selling volatility through strategies like short strangles on oil ETFs is a prudent way to collect premium as the market transitions from high uncertainty to a more stable state. The sharpest drop in volatility will likely occur immediately after an official announcement, so positioning ahead of that is key.
