VT 
USD/JPY trades in a tight range near 146.80 to 147.20, with traders digesting key macro developments from both the U.S. and Japan. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve officials offered mixed views on the rate outlook, keeping yield volatility elevated. Meanwhile, attention now shifts to the upcoming CPI release in Japan, which could influence policy expectations of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and yen sentiment heading into the weekend.
Inflation challenge in Japan and stance taken by the BoJ
Recent data out of Japan shows persistent inflationary pressure, with core CPI remaining above the 2% target of the BoJ. Despite this, the BoJ has maintained its loose monetary policy, citing fragile domestic demand and wage growth concerns. Governor Ueda’s cautious tone has kept rate hike expectations muted, allowing the yen to remain under pressure against the dollar.
U.S. Fed rate cut speculation adds fuel
In contrast, the Federal Reserve faces growing calls for easing, especially after mixed labor data last week and signs of slowing consumer demand. While some Fed officials remain hawkish, others have hinted at a shift toward employment-focused policy. This divergence has created volatility in U.S. yields, which in turn influences USD/JPY flows.
Technical analysis: USD/JPY eyes breakout
Technically, USD/JPY is hovering near the 147.00 to 147.50 zone. A confirmed breakout above 147.80 would signal bullish continuation toward multi-month highs, with upside targets at 148.50 and 149.35. On the downside, a break below 146.00 would invalidate the bullish bias and open room for a deeper correction.
- Resistance: 147.80, 148.50, 149.35
- Support: 146.20, 145.20, 144.40
- Bullish setup: Long entries on pullbacks to 146.20 or breakout above 147.80, targeting 148.50 and 149.35.
- Bearish setup: Short positions if price rejects 147.80 or breaks below 146.00, with downside targets at 145.20 and 144.40.
- Range play: Tactical trades within 146.00–147.80 until a breakout confirms direction.
CPI and Fed commentary: The drivers to watch
With USD/JPY sitting at a technical inflection point, traders should monitor the CPI release in Japan for confirmation. Yield differentials and risk sentiment will likely dictate whether the pair breaks higher or reverses course.
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