Switzerland’s month-on-month exports rose to 25,128M in May, up from 22,286M in the prior month. The increase points to stronger outbound shipments over the period.
The latest reading shows exports accelerating from April levels, reversing the previous month’s softer rate. In absolute terms, the rise from 22,286M to 25,128M marks a higher nominal flow of goods leaving the country in May.
Swiss Franc Outlook and Export Sector Performance
The jump in Swiss exports for May points to a strengthening economy and robust global demand. We believe this fundamentally supports the Swiss Franc (CHF), as foreign buyers need to purchase francs to pay for these goods. This upward revision is a strong signal that should not be ignored.
Given this data, we are positioning for franc appreciation in the coming weeks, particularly against the Euro. Online data shows that recent purchasing managers’ index (PMI) figures from Germany and France have been softer, creating a policy divergence that favors the franc. We are looking at buying put options on the EUR/CHF pair, targeting moves below the 0.9650 level.
This export strength is not just a headline number; it’s driven by the pharmaceutical and watchmaking sectors. The Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry recently reported a 12% year-over-year growth in exports for May 2026, confirming strong demand from Asia and the US. This specialized strength adds conviction to our view of a resilient Swiss economy.
Swiss Market Index Implications and Central Bank Policy
For equity derivative traders, this suggests continued strength in the Swiss Market Index (SMI). The performance of large-cap exporters like Roche and Novartis, which are major components of the index, is directly tied to this trend. We see value in buying near-term call options on the SMI, as the index has historically performed well during periods of strong export growth.
This economic data also impacts the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) outlook. With the economy performing well, the pressure for another interest rate cut diminishes significantly. This reinforces our bullish stance on the franc and may keep volatility in CHF pairs subdued, making it a good environment to buy options at reasonable prices.
