Dutch manufacturing output is rising, with the Nevi Dutch Manufacturing PMI reaching its highest level since 2022. Companies are building stocks in response to supply disruption linked to the Middle East, including reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Demand for Dutch manufactured goods is increasing at its fastest rate in almost two years. Foreign demand is growing only modestly, with growth linked mainly to domestic stockpiling.
Rising Output And Working Capital
Higher domestic demand, rising prices, and larger inventories are pushing production higher. These trends are also increasing working-capital needs for manufacturers.
Business expectations for production over the next 12 months have improved only marginally. Sentiment remains cautious because of geopolitical risks and uncertainty linked to energy conditions through 2026.
Dutch manufacturing is reported to be growing faster than German manufacturing, based in part on Germany’s flash purchasing managers’ index from S&P Global. The article states it was produced with the help of an AI tool and reviewed by an editor.
The recent jump in the Dutch Manufacturing PMI to 54.8 is a strong bullish signal for the near term, mainly because companies are stockpiling. We see this as a short-term opportunity to look at call options on the AEX index, which has already gained over 3% in the last month. This momentum is tied directly to the rush to build inventories amid ongoing supply chain fears.
AEX Versus DAX Divergence
At the same time, we see a clear divergence with Germany, whose manufacturing PMI is still in contraction at 45.2. The AEX index has outperformed the German DAX by nearly 8% since the start of the year, a trend we expect to continue. This supports a pairs trade strategy of being long Dutch industrials while shorting their German counterparts.
The primary driver of this situation, the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, remains the biggest source of volatility. We recall how shipping insurance rates tripled in late 2025 after the initial naval incidents, a cost that is still being passed down. The provisional ceasefire between the United States and Iran has done little to calm the shipping or energy markets, suggesting volatility is here to stay.
However, we must recognize that this stockpiling boost is temporary and not based on a surge in organic foreign demand. Business sentiment is still subdued, meaning a sudden resolution in the Middle East could lead to a sharp drop in new orders. We should consider hedging any bullish positions with put options on the AEX for the third quarter.
The energy crisis that began in 2025 continues to loom over the 2026 recovery. We saw Brent crude futures spike to nearly $120 a barrel last winter, and with geopolitical tensions still high, another spike is a real possibility. Options on oil futures or energy-related stocks are a direct way to position for this continued uncertainty.
