In the US, Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.8%, the highest in two years, while jobless claims fell to a two-month low. Federal Reserve officials expressed diverging views on the policy outlook, with some urging caution on rate cuts and others shifting focus toward employment. Calls to reform the Fed’s benchmark rate surfaced, highlighting liquidity advantages of the TGCR. Globally, geopolitical tensions rose as Russia extended fuel export bans.

KEY INDICATORS

US macroeconomic Data

• US GDP growth for Q2 2025 was revised sharply to +3.8% from the previous estimate of +3.3%, marking the highest level in two years.
• Unemployment claims for the week ending 20 September 2025 came in at 218,000, the lowest since the week of 19 July 2025.

Federal Reserve commentaries

• Dallas Fed President Logan advocates replacing the Federal Funds Rate with the more liquid Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR)
• Fed officials having mixed views on policy path
  • Fed Governor Bowman: Shift focus from inflation to employment.Kansas City Fed President Schmid: Favours more aggressive balance sheet reduction.Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Concerned about premature rate cuts based on slowing jobs data; inflation trends still uncertain.
  • San Francisco Fed President Daly: Warns against fully moving to a neutral stance, citing risks.

Russia-Ukraine conflict

• Russian diesel and petrol export bans extended to 31 December 2025

MARKET MOVERS

EUR/USD

• Primary trend: EUR/USD keeps a medium-term bearish bias, with price action suggesting a potential top. Broader outlook favoring downside.
• Support: 1.1635
• Resistance: 1.1735 could offer selling opportunities, with the broader outlook favoring downside.
• Long strategy: Consider tactical longs if dips hold above support at 1.1635, targeting 1.1710 – 1.1735 with tight risk controls.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 1.1735, aiming for 1.1635 and 1.161.
• Range trade: Buy near the 1.161 support and sell into the 1.1735 resistance, with stops kept tight given the prevailing bearish bias.

GBP/JPY

• Primary trend: A bullish bias retains, with price action suggesting a potential bottom near 199.5. 
• Support: 199.5
• Resistance: 201.1 – 201.5
• Long strategy: Buy on dips toward 199.5 support, targeting 201.1 and 201.5.
• Short strategy: Consider tactical shorts if price fails to hold above the 201.1 – 201.5 resistance, looking for a move back toward 199.5 support.
• Range trading: Buy near the 199.50 support and sell into the 201.50 resistance, with stops kept tight given the bullish bias.

XAU/USD

• Primary trend: Hovering near all-time highs with a neutral to slightly bearish medium-term bias whereby short-term economic data could trigger volatility.
• Support: 3680 – 3700
• Resistance: 3822
• Long strategy: Consider tactical longs if dips hold above 3700 – 3680, targeting 3750 – 3780 with tight stops.
• Short strategy: Sell into rallies near 3822, aiming for 3675 first, with potential extension to 3646.
• Range trading: Buy near the 3680 support, sell near the 3822 resistance, with stops kept tight due to indecision and limited momentum.

NEWS HEADLINES

US dollar

• The US Dollar Index surged sharply on Thursday following the significant upward revision to Q2 GDP.

Precious Metals

• Gold remained volatile, testing the $3,760 level multiple times intraday but failed to hold above it.
• Silver rallied strongly, breaking above $45 and hitting a new high since May 2011.

Oil

• Early losses were reversed during the US trading session, with the WTI crude reclaiming the $65 level and the Brent crude rose to $68.72 per barrel.

Equities

• In the US, the Dow Jones fell 0.38%, the S&P 500 declined 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite also dropped 0.5%.
• In Europe, the DAX 30 fell 0.56%, the FTSE 100 (UK) declined 0.39% and the Euro Stoxx 50 is down by 0.3%.